Auto sector dents recovery indicators

The Thai economy continues to benefit from growth in exports, tourism and improved private consumption and investment, yet challenges persist in the automotive sector, according to the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).
Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the FPO, said on Thursday economic indicators in October showed signs of recovery in private consumption year-on-year.
However, durable goods consumption in the automotive category remains sluggish. The number of newly registered passenger cars in October decreased by 27.4% year-on-year, but increased by 2.0% from the previous month after seasonal adjustment.
In contrast, new motorcycle registrations in October increased by 4.3% year-on-year and 6.1% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment.
According to Mr Pornchai, the consumer confidence index rose to 56.0 in October, up from 55.3 the previous month, supported primarily by stimulus programmes targeting welfare cardholders and people with disabilities; continued growth in the tourism sector; and improved prices for several agricultural products, aligning with an increase in real agricultural income in October of 4.2% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, indicators for private investment improved from the previous month. Investments in machinery and equipment, as reflected by imports of capital goods, increased in October by 21.2% year-on-year and 8.8% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment.
New registrations of commercial vehicles in October fell by 18.5% year-on-year, but rose by 5.2% from the previous month after seasonal adjustment.
In the construction sector, domestic cement sales in October increased by 15.7% year-on-year, but fell by 0.7% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment.
Real estate transaction taxes decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, but rose by 8.0% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment.
He said export value grew year-on-year, with total export value in October reaching US$27.2 billion, up 14.6%.
Exports excluding oil, gold and arms-related products grew by 10.7%, driven by significant gains in computers and components, air conditioners and components, and machinery and components, which expanded by 77.5%, 44.9% and 43.0% respectively.
Rubber, canned and processed seafood, pet food and rice also recorded export growth of 32.6%, 26.7%, 18.2% and 10.1%, respectively. Conversely, shipments of cassava products, sugar, and vehicles and components declined.
By market, exports to Indochina, the EU, the US and China increased by 27.9%, 27.5%, 25.3% and 8.4% respectively, but shipments to Australia and Taiwan contracted by 14.0% and 3.1% respectively.
Mr Pornchai said supply side economic indicators, particularly in tourism services, gained year-on-year.
In October, the tourism sector recorded 2.68 million foreign arrivals, marking a 21.9% year-on-year increase. However, after seasonal adjustment, the tally was an 8.1% decline from the previous month.
The main tourist source markets were China, Malaysia, India, South Korea and Russia.
He confirmed the country’s economic stability remained favourable, with a headline inflation rate of 0.83% in October and core inflation of 0.77%.
As of the end of September, the public debt-to-GDP ratio was 63.3%, remaining within the fiscal discipline framework set by the State Fiscal and Financial Disciplines Act.
External stability also remains robust, capable of withstanding global economic volatility, with international reserves still elevated at $239 billion as of the end of October, said Mr Pornchai.